2024 ZiPS Projections: Cincinnati Reds

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Cincinnati Reds.

Batters

When I look at Cincinnati’s offense, I’m incredibly confused. By “confused” I don’t mean that the offense is lousy, just that its construction is utterly bizarre in a lot of areas. For example, even if you write Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz in permanent marker at second base and shortstop, respectively, you still have a team that’s overflowing with plausible third base candidates: Jonathan India, Noelvi Marte, Spencer Steer, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to start. Given this hot corner glut, the Reds signed… one of the best third basemen available, in the form of Jeimer Candelario, but not, mind you, to be the starting third baseman. And while he’ll see time there, it’s extremely likely he’s going to get a ton of time at first base and designated hitter. One of the main reasons to like Candelario is that he hits like he does while playing a very competent third base. The more time he sees at 1B/DH, the more it’s the equivalent of buying a sports car to use as a step ladder to change the light bulb in your garage.

What’s more, many of the players who’ll be shifting down the defensive spectrum doesn’t really have much in the way of synergy. Candelario, Steer, and Encarnacion-Strand are all essentially right-handed hitters in profile (Candelario has the splits of a right-handed batter), so it’s not like one of those sneaky Gabe Kapler platoons.

Given how much ownership has cried poor, I don’t want to discourage the Reds from spending, but if they’re going to grow payroll, why not spend to address actual team weaknesses? Spending more money and getting bang for your buck are not mutually exclusive propositions. When I expressed confusion on Twitter about the Reds earlier this offseason, I was assured by fans of the team that the roster would make more sense after all the trades they were certainly going to make. Well, those moves haven’t come.

But who knows? The Reds do have a lot of talent on the roster, even if their players are deployed in a rather odd way. McLain is terrific, and I think De La Cruz’s late-season drop-off removed the over-exuberance that he was going to be Fernando Tatis Jr.; he’s now about properly rated for what he is. Tyler Stephenson ought to have a better season than he did in 2023, and ZiPS projects the outfield to be adequate if healthy, though the computer can hardly be described as enthusiastic. ZiPS is kind of interested in Blake Dunn as someone who could eventually push Stuart Fairchild off the roster. As we’ve seen with them before, the Reds likely missed the window to get a good return for India, but he’s still probably a roughly league-average player and isn’t going to get any more valuable as a role player.

I’ll be generous and give the team the benefit of the doubt that there’s a plan to trade off some of the surplus talent here before it’s frittered away by time and attrition. But they’re running out of time to do it before the start of spring training.

Pitchers

ZiPS likes a lot of Cincinnati’s hitters, but it’s less enthusiastic about the pitching. That’s not so much a rotation problem, though several of the starters have worse projections than last year. It’s really odd that the Reds made a playoff run and it turned out that it have very little to do with breakouts from Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, or Nick Lodolo, all three of whom were some combination of mediocre and injured in 2023. ZiPS is a believer in Andrew Abbott in the sense that he’s a deserving part of the rotation, but its expectations are tempered a bit. Green, Ashcraft, and Lodolo all have worse outlooks than they did at this time last year, though that can hardly be a surprise.

Unlike some of the other Cincy signings, I really like the Frankie Montas pickup. There’s a good chance that he doesn’t contribute anything at all in Cincinnati, but the upside, given his history, is really quite interesting. I wish the team signed players like this more often, ones who represent a real jackpot for the team if they hit, say, their 70th percentile projections and stay healthy. The computer likes Nick Martinez as a useful swingman.

ZiPS absolutely hates the bullpen, though in the end, it has the group projected for the same 2.3 WAR that Steamer does. ZiPS likes Alexis Díaz, Fernando Cruz, and Martinez when he’s used in relief, but is lukewarm everywhere else.

I think the Emilio Pagán signing was the worst bullpen addition any team has made in free agency so far this winter, but I was surprised that ZiPS likes Pagán even less. I see this as a good example of a team thinking that the season before is the same thing as a projection, and ignoring the red flags. Pagán was basically successful because he suddenly went from being a terrible home run pitcher to a great one. Home runs allowed is a terrible stat, so terrible in fact that it makes xFIP useful, when it really should not be. Pagán has a long history of allowing a lot of homers in pitcher-friendly environments and actually had the worst average exit velocity allowed in his career in 2023. He remained a fly ball pitcher, and now he goes to one of the worst environments in baseball for a pitcher who allows a lot of flies. This is like the anti-Dodgers signing. That’s not a guarantee that Pagán will be lousy — relievers are quite volatile — but I really don’t like the odds.

So what does this all add up to? If the projections are to believed, about a .500 team, just where the Reds finished last year. Given the team’s young talent, I wish this franchise was taking a more practical approach to actually improving the roster.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard

Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Matt McLain R 24 SS 548 481 73 121 27 4 20 81 56 149 18 6
Jeimer Candelario B 30 3B 560 497 75 129 32 2 23 84 52 129 4 1
Elly de la Cruz B 22 SS 616 563 92 136 25 8 23 87 49 191 39 10
TJ Friedl L 28 CF 523 457 66 119 19 7 13 65 46 88 18 5
Spencer Steer R 26 LF 646 568 79 150 34 3 23 90 63 135 10 3
Jonathan India R 27 2B 548 471 77 119 26 1 16 63 55 114 11 3
Tyler Stephenson R 27 C 455 404 55 104 19 1 13 56 43 109 0 0
Christian Encarnacion-Strand R 24 1B 559 512 73 134 26 3 28 97 36 157 4 1
Blake Dunn R 25 CF 521 451 72 109 12 3 17 78 41 143 28 4
Will Benson L 26 RF 468 397 69 90 19 6 15 58 63 145 18 3
Jason Vosler L 30 3B 424 382 55 88 17 1 18 55 36 120 2 1
Noelvi Marte R 22 3B 546 496 69 133 22 2 14 69 42 116 17 6
Jake Fraley L 29 RF 367 320 42 80 15 1 13 55 40 79 15 4
Jose Barrero R 26 SS 467 424 52 94 19 2 16 62 28 156 13 3
Stuart Fairchild R 28 LF 355 311 45 73 15 3 11 46 29 98 9 3
Luke Maile R 33 C 212 187 21 46 12 0 5 23 19 58 1 0
Matheu Nelson R 25 C 382 342 43 69 11 1 13 48 28 130 2 1
Mark Mathias R 29 2B 308 269 33 64 12 0 8 39 32 83 7 2
Edwin Arroyo B 20 SS 572 526 71 122 23 8 13 68 35 151 16 5
Cade Hunter L 23 C 434 388 49 81 8 0 13 51 35 141 3 2
Jacob Hurtubise L 26 LF 423 354 65 88 9 4 3 47 45 77 22 6
Conner Capel L 27 CF 462 414 49 97 17 3 10 49 42 110 12 6
P.J. Higgins R 31 C 344 308 37 73 15 1 7 42 29 87 1 1
Curt Casali R 35 C 167 142 16 32 6 0 4 17 19 47 0 1
Wil Myers R 33 RF 338 304 37 75 16 1 12 43 30 101 4 2
Nick Martini L 34 LF 424 369 53 88 14 2 12 55 44 102 0 1
Matt Reynolds R 33 2B 424 379 46 86 21 2 10 48 39 133 5 1
Hernan Perez 페레즈 R 33 SS 286 264 32 64 11 1 8 32 19 74 8 3
Jhonny Pereda R 28 C 274 245 24 60 12 0 4 25 27 54 0 1
Ivan Johnson B 25 2B 364 333 42 71 15 2 10 44 23 117 8 2
Trey Mancini R 32 1B 457 409 54 100 22 1 15 56 39 118 0 1
Allan Cerda R 24 CF 382 331 44 63 15 2 14 50 40 149 3 4
Levi Jordan R 28 SS 334 300 37 68 13 1 5 34 26 79 6 1
Quincy McAfee R 26 LF 384 334 45 72 15 2 9 45 33 96 4 3
Francisco Urbaez R 26 2B 338 307 34 73 13 1 4 34 26 69 2 1
Joey Votto L 40 1B 365 312 37 66 14 1 14 46 45 100 0 1
Austin Wynns R 33 C 236 212 23 48 8 0 5 24 18 57 1 1
Michael Trautwein L 24 C 285 256 27 51 8 1 4 28 23 95 2 1
Daniel Vellojin L 24 C 310 274 29 55 11 1 6 28 32 84 2 1
Jose Torres R 24 SS 366 334 40 67 10 2 7 36 21 122 8 3
Steven Leyton R 25 2B 313 297 37 66 17 3 6 36 8 73 2 1
Tyler Callihan L 24 2B 495 455 45 102 22 4 7 48 29 133 13 3
Drew Mount L 28 RF 187 172 24 38 5 1 4 23 9 58 2 2
Andy Yerzy L 25 DH 335 297 32 61 12 1 12 41 31 104 2 1
Eric Yang R 26 C 206 182 17 36 8 0 2 18 17 61 0 1
Erik González R 32 SS 419 393 33 90 16 1 3 40 20 104 3 3
Miguel Hernandez R 25 2B 279 262 29 62 9 1 4 26 14 67 2 1
Ruben Ibarra R 25 1B 367 327 34 69 11 0 12 47 28 112 1 1
Rece Hinds R 23 RF 428 397 47 84 17 3 17 61 22 166 10 5
Alexander Ovalles L 23 LF 325 287 38 64 11 2 6 33 31 90 4 2
Ashton Creal R 25 CF 193 169 22 31 6 1 3 18 14 79 5 2
Nicholas Northcut R 25 3B 371 347 38 70 17 1 15 46 18 147 0 1
Brian Rey R 26 DH 280 258 26 62 10 1 4 31 11 54 2 2
James Free B 26 DH 424 385 37 88 17 1 11 48 33 106 0 1
Nick Quintana R 26 3B 338 301 34 57 15 0 6 34 31 98 1 1
Alex McGarry L 26 1B 441 412 42 91 18 3 13 53 24 144 7 3
Justice Thompson R 23 CF 391 352 40 68 13 2 7 39 34 149 7 3
Austin Callahan L 23 3B 483 453 46 91 25 2 7 47 24 166 2 1
Jack Rogers L 25 LF 405 371 41 73 15 4 10 47 28 174 5 5

Batters – Advanced

Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA RC
Matt McLain 548 .252 .339 .449 108 .198 .324 3 3.2 .341 79
Jeimer Candelario 560 .260 .338 .471 113 .211 .307 -2 2.6 .347 80
Elly de la Cruz 616 .242 .304 .437 95 .195 .324 -2 2.2 .317 87
TJ Friedl 523 .260 .340 .418 101 .158 .298 1 2.1 .330 71
Spencer Steer 646 .264 .347 .456 112 .192 .310 -4 2.0 .347 93
Jonathan India 548 .253 .350 .414 103 .161 .302 -7 1.7 .336 72
Tyler Stephenson 455 .257 .334 .406 97 .149 .323 -3 1.6 .323 55
Christian Encarnacion-Strand 559 .262 .320 .488 112 .227 .324 -1 1.5 .344 81
Blake Dunn 521 .242 .334 .395 94 .153 .316 -5 1.4 .322 67
Will Benson 468 .227 .338 .418 101 .191 .316 0 1.2 .331 61
Jason Vosler 424 .230 .300 .421 90 .191 .287 4 1.2 .311 49
Noelvi Marte 546 .268 .330 .405 95 .137 .325 -5 1.1 .320 72
Jake Fraley 367 .250 .341 .425 103 .175 .294 1 1.0 .333 51
Jose Barrero 467 .222 .283 .389 77 .167 .310 1 0.8 .292 51
Stuart Fairchild 355 .235 .318 .408 92 .174 .307 3 0.8 .317 43
Luke Maile 212 .246 .327 .390 91 .144 .331 -1 0.7 .316 24
Matheu Nelson 382 .202 .279 .354 68 .152 .281 5 0.7 .279 35
Mark Mathias 308 .238 .325 .372 86 .134 .315 0 0.6 .308 35
Edwin Arroyo 572 .232 .285 .380 76 .148 .301 -1 0.6 .288 62
Cade Hunter 434 .209 .288 .330 65 .121 .291 5 0.6 .275 38
Jacob Hurtubise 423 .249 .359 .322 84 .073 .310 0 0.5 .313 48
Conner Capel 462 .234 .308 .362 78 .128 .296 1 0.5 .296 51
P.J. Higgins 344 .237 .306 .360 77 .123 .308 -1 0.4 .294 35
Curt Casali 167 .225 .327 .352 82 .127 .308 0 0.4 .303 17
Wil Myers 338 .247 .315 .424 95 .178 .330 0 0.4 .319 42
Nick Martini 424 .238 .333 .385 91 .146 .298 -1 0.3 .317 48
Matt Reynolds 424 .227 .300 .372 78 .145 .322 -1 0.3 .293 44
Hernan Perez 286 .242 .294 .383 79 .140 .308 -2 0.2 .293 33
Jhonny Pereda 274 .245 .318 .343 77 .098 .299 -3 0.2 .294 27
Ivan Johnson 364 .213 .275 .360 68 .147 .296 3 0.2 .278 36
Trey Mancini 457 .244 .317 .413 93 .169 .308 0 0.2 .316 54
Allan Cerda 382 .190 .296 .375 78 .184 .292 -1 0.1 .296 39
Levi Jordan 334 .227 .297 .327 67 .100 .292 -1 0.0 .279 31
Quincy McAfee 384 .216 .304 .353 75 .138 .275 4 0.0 .292 38
Francisco Urbaez 338 .238 .305 .326 69 .088 .295 1 0.0 .282 31
Joey Votto 365 .212 .321 .397 90 .186 .263 -1 0.0 .315 40
Austin Wynns 236 .226 .295 .335 68 .108 .287 -3 -0.1 .280 22
Michael Trautwein 285 .199 .277 .285 51 .086 .299 3 -0.1 .255 21
Daniel Vellojin 310 .201 .288 .314 61 .113 .266 -1 -0.1 .271 26
Jose Torres 366 .201 .253 .305 49 .105 .293 7 -0.2 .247 29
Steven Leyton 313 .222 .256 .360 62 .138 .275 2 -0.3 .266 28
Tyler Callihan 495 .224 .276 .336 62 .112 .302 1 -0.3 .269 46
Drew Mount 187 .221 .278 .331 62 .110 .309 1 -0.4 .270 17
Andy Yerzy 335 .205 .293 .374 76 .168 .271 0 -0.5 .292 33
Eric Yang 206 .198 .286 .275 51 .077 .286 -2 -0.5 .258 15
Erik González 419 .229 .269 .298 51 .069 .304 5 -0.5 .251 33
Miguel Hernandez 279 .237 .277 .324 60 .088 .304 0 -0.5 .265 24
Ruben Ibarra 367 .211 .289 .355 71 .144 .281 3 -0.5 .283 34
Rece Hinds 428 .212 .262 .398 73 .186 .313 3 -0.5 .282 45
Alexander Ovalles 325 .223 .303 .338 71 .115 .304 -1 -0.6 .286 31
Ashton Creal 193 .183 .268 .284 48 .101 .322 -2 -0.7 .251 15
Nicholas Northcut 371 .202 .248 .386 66 .184 .297 -3 -0.7 .272 34
Brian Rey 280 .240 .293 .333 67 .093 .290 0 -0.7 .278 26
James Free 424 .229 .292 .364 74 .135 .287 0 -0.8 .287 41
Nick Quintana 338 .189 .275 .299 54 .110 .259 -2 -1.0 .259 25
Alex McGarry 441 .221 .268 .374 69 .153 .306 0 -1.1 .277 44
Justice Thompson 391 .193 .271 .301 53 .108 .311 -3 -1.2 .257 31
Austin Callahan 483 .201 .244 .311 47 .110 .300 3 -1.4 .243 35
Jack Rogers 405 .197 .262 .340 59 .143 .337 -4 -1.8 .264 36

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles

Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Matt McLain .275 .366 .504 125 4.5 .227 .316 .400 91 2.0
Jeimer Candelario .284 .366 .539 136 4.1 .230 .313 .416 94 1.4
Elly de la Cruz .273 .332 .501 116 3.9 .215 .278 .378 74 0.5
TJ Friedl .286 .368 .464 120 3.3 .237 .318 .370 85 1.0
Spencer Steer .290 .368 .517 133 3.5 .237 .321 .403 94 0.5
Jonathan India .279 .378 .469 123 2.9 .229 .326 .362 85 0.5
Tyler Stephenson .286 .362 .460 116 2.7 .229 .307 .352 76 0.4
Christian Encarnacion-Strand .286 .348 .561 134 3.1 .229 .292 .430 90 0.1
Blake Dunn .268 .361 .446 114 2.7 .214 .307 .340 74 0.2
Will Benson .255 .368 .484 120 2.4 .198 .311 .365 79 0.0
Jason Vosler .255 .323 .479 110 2.2 .204 .275 .372 73 0.3
Noelvi Marte .295 .357 .462 116 2.6 .245 .306 .360 80 0.0
Jake Fraley .276 .366 .482 121 1.8 .227 .318 .377 86 0.2
Jose Barrero .245 .307 .441 97 2.0 .195 .254 .333 57 -0.4
Stuart Fairchild .260 .344 .466 112 1.6 .206 .290 .352 70 -0.2
Luke Maile .274 .354 .447 110 1.2 .217 .297 .341 70 0.1
Matheu Nelson .233 .309 .408 88 1.6 .176 .251 .307 49 -0.2
Mark Mathias .264 .353 .424 105 1.4 .208 .293 .323 67 -0.1
Edwin Arroyo .257 .312 .437 96 2.0 .210 .261 .332 59 -0.7
Cade Hunter .243 .320 .384 87 1.8 .181 .260 .281 46 -0.5
Jacob Hurtubise .276 .385 .366 101 1.4 .222 .332 .283 68 -0.4
Conner Capel .259 .332 .405 94 1.3 .212 .280 .320 63 -0.5
P.J. Higgins .264 .332 .403 95 1.2 .215 .281 .319 62 -0.3
Curt Casali .259 .356 .413 101 0.8 .193 .292 .297 60 -0.1
Wil Myers .276 .338 .479 116 1.2 .218 .283 .368 75 -0.5
Nick Martini .266 .357 .439 110 1.2 .211 .308 .337 73 -0.6
Matt Reynolds .254 .326 .419 96 1.3 .201 .274 .323 60 -0.6
Hernan Perez .271 .321 .435 98 0.9 .216 .269 .332 61 -0.4
Jhonny Pereda .275 .349 .388 96 0.8 .218 .291 .302 62 -0.4
Ivan Johnson .238 .301 .414 89 1.1 .185 .249 .308 48 -0.7
Trey Mancini .271 .341 .462 114 1.3 .219 .290 .359 76 -0.8
Allan Cerda .216 .323 .424 94 1.0 .158 .268 .311 55 -0.9
Levi Jordan .251 .325 .375 85 0.8 .202 .273 .286 50 -0.6
Quincy McAfee .242 .334 .402 93 0.9 .187 .278 .301 55 -0.9
Francisco Urbaez .264 .334 .363 84 0.7 .210 .279 .283 50 -0.7
Joey Votto .236 .352 .458 111 0.9 .186 .293 .337 70 -0.9
Austin Wynns .255 .325 .385 88 0.5 .196 .263 .286 49 -0.7
Michael Trautwein .229 .310 .342 72 0.6 .169 .252 .241 33 -0.7
Daniel Vellojin .234 .322 .370 85 0.7 .174 .262 .264 45 -0.8
Jose Torres .224 .273 .352 65 0.6 .177 .229 .264 34 -0.9
Steven Leyton .252 .283 .416 84 0.5 .198 .231 .310 43 -1.0
Tyler Callihan .248 .303 .377 80 0.7 .198 .255 .296 46 -1.4
Drew Mount .246 .304 .379 81 0.0 .194 .255 .287 45 -0.9
Andy Yerzy .238 .322 .435 100 0.5 .178 .264 .321 58 -1.2
Eric Yang .228 .316 .318 70 0.0 .166 .256 .233 33 -0.9
Erik González .258 .299 .337 70 0.5 .203 .246 .266 37 -1.2
Miguel Hernandez .262 .304 .369 77 0.1 .212 .251 .294 47 -1.0
Ruben Ibarra .243 .319 .408 93 0.5 .188 .260 .308 55 -1.2
Rece Hinds .241 .293 .459 95 0.7 .184 .239 .348 55 -1.5
Alexander Ovalles .252 .331 .383 89 0.1 .200 .280 .294 55 -1.2
Ashton Creal .209 .295 .329 66 -0.2 .153 .240 .244 32 -1.1
Nicholas Northcut .230 .275 .453 89 0.4 .177 .221 .331 45 -1.7
Brian Rey .268 .319 .380 86 -0.1 .213 .267 .296 51 -1.3
James Free .259 .325 .421 96 0.3 .204 .266 .318 56 -1.8
Nick Quintana .213 .300 .346 70 -0.3 .164 .248 .256 36 -1.7
Alex McGarry .250 .297 .431 89 0.0 .198 .243 .330 53 -2.0
Justice Thompson .218 .299 .343 68 -0.4 .172 .249 .260 35 -2.0
Austin Callahan .222 .269 .350 62 -0.5 .178 .217 .271 30 -2.4
Jack Rogers .223 .289 .393 80 -0.7 .172 .236 .289 41 -2.7

Batters – Projected Splits

Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R
Matt McLain .253 .349 .449 .251 .332 .449
Jeimer Candelario .265 .343 .490 .257 .335 .463
Elly de la Cruz .238 .302 .433 .244 .306 .440
TJ Friedl .263 .342 .416 .259 .339 .419
Spencer Steer .275 .363 .490 .255 .334 .430
Jonathan India .256 .355 .406 .251 .348 .418
Tyler Stephenson .265 .345 .411 .253 .327 .403
Christian Encarnacion-Strand .259 .322 .491 .264 .319 .486
Blake Dunn .247 .343 .420 .238 .328 .379
Will Benson .209 .318 .395 .235 .348 .429
Jason Vosler .227 .291 .406 .232 .304 .429
Noelvi Marte .271 .340 .411 .266 .321 .401
Jake Fraley .238 .337 .388 .254 .342 .438
Jose Barrero .226 .287 .401 .219 .280 .381
Stuart Fairchild .237 .327 .424 .233 .311 .395
Luke Maile .261 .346 .420 .237 .316 .373
Matheu Nelson .204 .285 .359 .200 .275 .350
Mark Mathias .240 .336 .388 .236 .315 .358
Edwin Arroyo .228 .285 .396 .234 .286 .371
Cade Hunter .202 .279 .303 .211 .292 .341
Jacob Hurtubise .235 .350 .296 .255 .363 .335
Conner Capel .221 .292 .331 .242 .317 .379
P.J. Higgins .242 .319 .367 .234 .298 .356
Curt Casali .226 .339 .377 .225 .320 .337
Wil Myers .250 .324 .427 .245 .310 .423
Nick Martini .224 .323 .355 .244 .337 .397
Matt Reynolds .228 .310 .383 .226 .293 .365
Hernan Perez .245 .296 .396 .241 .292 .373
Jhonny Pereda .243 .325 .351 .246 .311 .336
Ivan Johnson .208 .272 .336 .216 .278 .375
Trey Mancini .250 .327 .410 .242 .312 .415
Allan Cerda .191 .302 .369 .190 .290 .379
Levi Jordan .235 .309 .360 .220 .287 .299
Quincy McAfee .219 .316 .358 .213 .295 .350
Francisco Urbaez .237 .312 .338 .238 .299 .315
Joey Votto .200 .313 .368 .217 .324 .410
Austin Wynns .233 .305 .337 .222 .288 .333
Michael Trautwein .192 .272 .260 .202 .279 .295
Daniel Vellojin .191 .276 .287 .206 .294 .328
Jose Torres .208 .261 .313 .195 .248 .300
Steven Leyton .229 .258 .365 .213 .252 .354
Tyler Callihan .219 .272 .315 .227 .277 .346
Drew Mount .218 .283 .291 .222 .276 .350
Andy Yerzy .195 .285 .352 .213 .298 .391
Eric Yang .200 .292 .282 .196 .282 .268
Erik González .230 .272 .289 .228 .267 .303
Miguel Hernandez .242 .283 .342 .232 .272 .310
Ruben Ibarra .212 .295 .364 .210 .284 .349
Rece Hinds .215 .271 .411 .209 .255 .389
Alexander Ovalles .224 .305 .328 .222 .302 .345
Ashton Creal .184 .271 .289 .183 .267 .280
Nicholas Northcut .208 .259 .409 .197 .239 .368
Brian Rey .250 .300 .345 .227 .283 .318
James Free .232 .299 .359 .226 .288 .366
Nick Quintana .194 .290 .303 .185 .259 .295
Alex McGarry .214 .258 .352 .225 .273 .386
Justice Thompson .196 .283 .311 .191 .262 .294
Austin Callahan .193 .236 .296 .204 .248 .318
Jack Rogers .190 .254 .319 .200 .265 .349

Pitchers – Advanced

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Andrew Abbott 143.0 9.8 3.4 1.4 8.8% 25.5% .294 101 4.29 99 2.1
Hunter Greene 133.7 11.4 3.2 1.5 8.6% 30.5% .277 103 4.19 97 2.1
Nick Martinez 100.3 9.4 3.2 1.2 8.4% 24.4% .308 110 4.01 91 1.6
Frankie Montas 131.7 9.2 2.8 1.4 7.3% 24.2% .293 98 4.23 102 1.5
Graham Ashcraft 131.0 7.6 3.1 1.1 7.9% 19.5% .299 93 4.38 108 1.5
Brandon Williamson 128.3 8.1 4.0 1.4 10.0% 20.4% .297 88 4.97 113 1.2
Alexis Díaz 67.0 10.7 4.3 1.1 11.3% 28.4% .250 114 4.17 87 1.1
Nick Lodolo 83.7 10.8 3.1 1.4 8.1% 28.0% .305 96 4.39 104 1.0
Connor Phillips 114.7 10.0 4.8 1.4 11.9% 25.0% .296 89 4.87 113 1.0
Julian Aguiar 109.3 7.1 2.9 1.5 7.3% 18.0% .293 89 5.00 113 1.0
Chase Petty 95.7 6.7 3.0 1.4 7.6% 16.9% .296 86 5.03 116 0.7
Reiver Sanmartin 75.0 8.0 3.2 1.3 8.2% 20.4% .305 88 4.54 113 0.5
Fernando Cruz 54.3 11.9 4.1 1.5 10.5% 30.1% .323 108 4.41 93 0.5
Carson Spiers 94.0 7.7 3.8 1.4 9.6% 19.2% .299 83 5.16 120 0.5
Lyon Richardson 82.3 8.7 4.6 1.5 11.3% 21.4% .297 82 5.23 123 0.4
Christian Roa 97.3 9.2 5.8 1.6 14.0% 22.3% .297 80 5.60 125 0.4
Connor Overton 54.7 7.4 2.8 1.5 7.2% 19.0% .294 87 4.85 115 0.4
Tejay Antone 47.3 8.4 3.8 1.5 9.6% 21.2% .291 87 5.05 115 0.3
Randy Wynne 85.0 4.9 2.0 1.7 5.1% 12.4% .301 81 5.43 124 0.3
Kevin Herget 67.0 7.1 2.7 1.6 6.8% 18.2% .306 85 5.03 118 0.3
Casey Legumina 55.3 8.3 3.7 1.5 9.4% 20.8% .306 86 4.88 117 0.2
Emilio Pagán 56.3 9.1 3.0 1.6 8.0% 24.1% .280 96 4.60 104 0.2
Brett Kennedy 76.7 6.5 3.8 1.5 9.3% 15.9% .299 79 5.51 126 0.2
Ian Gibaut 62.0 9.6 3.8 1.3 9.6% 24.4% .305 96 4.42 104 0.2
Sam Benschoter 100.0 7.7 4.3 1.6 10.5% 18.9% .296 77 5.62 129 0.2
Alex Young 56.7 9.4 3.3 1.6 8.5% 24.0% .305 90 4.68 111 0.2
Connor Curlis 80.0 7.3 4.1 1.7 10.0% 18.1% .296 78 5.64 129 0.2
Justin Bruihl 52.7 6.8 3.4 1.2 8.7% 17.3% .292 96 4.83 104 0.2
Levi Stoudt 84.3 6.4 4.4 1.5 10.5% 15.4% .303 77 5.63 129 0.1
Sam Moll 51.7 9.2 4.2 1.4 10.7% 23.6% .283 91 4.90 109 0.1
Lucas Sims 55.0 10.8 5.2 1.3 13.3% 27.5% .267 91 4.87 110 0.1
Derek Law 49.7 8.7 4.2 1.4 10.2% 21.3% .310 88 4.93 114 0.1
Evan Kravetz 59.0 8.2 4.6 1.5 11.2% 20.2% .300 81 5.31 123 0.1
Michael Mariot 58.0 5.7 3.7 1.7 9.1% 14.1% .302 76 5.84 132 0.0
Silvino Bracho 50.3 8.4 3.4 1.6 8.7% 21.6% .296 86 4.96 116 0.0
Michael Byrne 51.0 7.8 3.5 1.4 8.8% 19.4% .300 87 4.86 115 0.0
Thomas Farr 93.0 5.4 3.6 1.5 8.8% 13.4% .295 74 5.87 135 0.0
Chasen Shreve 41.0 8.8 3.3 1.5 8.5% 22.6% .292 88 4.69 113 0.0
Buck Farmer 60.3 10.0 4.3 1.5 11.0% 25.4% .290 91 4.78 110 0.0
Tony Santillan 51.0 8.8 5.5 1.4 13.2% 21.4% .298 81 5.45 123 0.0
Tommy Eveld 35.3 8.2 2.8 1.5 7.2% 21.1% .304 87 4.76 114 0.0
Spencer Stockton 48.0 7.3 3.9 1.5 9.9% 18.3% .299 79 5.30 126 -0.1
Alec Mills 58.0 5.6 3.1 1.7 7.7% 13.8% .307 74 5.72 136 -0.1
Brooks Kriske 33.7 11.2 4.8 1.6 11.8% 27.5% .296 83 4.86 120 -0.1
Jake Wong 66.7 6.3 4.3 1.6 10.4% 15.3% .302 75 5.76 133 -0.2
Tyler Jay 34.7 8.3 3.9 1.8 9.6% 20.4% .314 75 5.59 134 -0.2
T.J. Sikkema 62.7 7.0 4.3 1.4 10.8% 17.6% .287 76 5.63 132 -0.2
Myles Gayman 61.0 5.8 1.9 1.5 5.0% 15.0% .298 82 5.14 123 -0.3
Donovan Benoit 31.3 9.2 5.5 1.4 13.3% 22.4% .294 78 5.58 129 -0.3
Eddy Demurias 42.3 7.4 4.9 1.5 11.9% 18.0% .299 78 5.59 129 -0.3
Zack Brown 43.7 5.8 4.9 1.6 11.6% 13.5% .303 70 6.28 143 -0.3
Hunter Strickland 39.7 7.7 4.8 1.8 11.7% 18.9% .287 76 5.98 132 -0.3
Brooks Crawford 63.3 6.8 3.6 1.6 8.8% 17.0% .297 80 5.37 124 -0.3
Alan Busenitz 49.3 6.9 3.8 1.6 9.5% 17.1% .303 79 5.48 127 -0.3
Ryan Meisinger 34.7 9.1 5.5 1.8 13.0% 21.6% .302 75 5.85 134 -0.4
Shea Spitzbarth 35.3 7.1 5.9 1.5 13.9% 17.0% .299 73 6.00 137 -0.4
Daniel Duarte 54.3 8.4 4.8 1.7 11.7% 20.6% .294 77 5.65 130 -0.4
Andy Fisher 41.3 7.4 5.2 1.5 12.6% 17.9% .293 73 5.99 137 -0.5
Stevie Branche 40.0 9.7 6.5 1.6 15.2% 22.5% .288 73 6.01 136 -0.5
Jared Solomon 49.3 6.9 6.0 1.6 14.0% 16.1% .303 68 6.40 147 -0.5
Ryan Nutof 55.0 7.4 5.2 1.5 12.3% 17.3% .301 76 5.60 132 -0.5
Tayron Guerrero 22.0 7.0 6.5 2.0 14.7% 15.6% .309 61 7.26 165 -0.6
Vin Timpanelli 47.0 8.6 6.3 1.5 14.9% 20.4% .285 71 6.17 142 -0.6
Jake Gozzo 46.0 6.3 6.5 1.6 14.7% 14.3% .292 63 6.67 158 -1.0

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles

Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Andrew Abbott .229 .288 .360 .244 .319 .446 3.0 1.0 3.86 5.16
Hunter Greene .213 .301 .404 .218 .293 .391 3.1 1.0 3.67 5.02
Nick Martinez .243 .324 .402 .252 .305 .411 2.7 0.4 3.21 5.17
Frankie Montas .254 .322 .452 .233 .285 .385 2.4 0.5 3.76 5.01
Graham Ashcraft .234 .310 .326 .275 .338 .489 2.3 0.6 4.22 5.49
Brandon Williamson .252 .324 .374 .259 .344 .470 2.1 0.2 4.39 5.86
Alexis Díaz .196 .321 .357 .189 .285 .318 1.9 0.0 3.17 5.13
Nick Lodolo .222 .300 .321 .244 .332 .455 1.6 0.3 4.03 5.50
Connor Phillips .236 .355 .419 .242 .326 .421 1.8 -0.1 4.47 6.00
Julian Aguiar .250 .333 .452 .275 .325 .453 1.6 0.3 4.52 5.65
Chase Petty .266 .337 .434 .271 .332 .467 1.3 0.1 4.58 5.91
Reiver Sanmartin .240 .308 .385 .272 .333 .465 1.0 -0.1 4.50 5.99
Fernando Cruz .240 .333 .410 .243 .336 .441 1.1 -0.2 3.17 5.65
Carson Spiers .279 .367 .474 .246 .320 .421 1.1 -0.1 4.77 5.99
Lyon Richardson .247 .349 .432 .261 .344 .466 1.0 -0.2 4.84 6.21
Christian Roa .250 .372 .453 .250 .355 .442 1.0 -0.5 5.00 6.46
Connor Overton .275 .342 .480 .252 .304 .426 0.8 0.0 4.39 5.88
Tejay Antone .256 .343 .467 .250 .324 .427 0.7 -0.1 4.39 6.04
Randy Wynne .295 .351 .545 .292 .320 .467 0.7 -0.2 5.04 6.13
Kevin Herget .265 .320 .470 .286 .339 .494 0.8 -0.2 4.43 6.14
Casey Legumina .269 .342 .510 .259 .331 .397 0.6 -0.2 4.54 5.95
Emilio Pagán .242 .314 .473 .238 .292 .405 0.8 -0.4 3.78 5.76
Brett Kennedy .273 .350 .475 .276 .352 .471 0.7 -0.3 5.06 6.26
Ian Gibaut .243 .328 .391 .252 .324 .441 0.8 -0.5 3.84 5.80
Sam Benschoter .273 .374 .477 .257 .340 .455 0.8 -0.5 5.22 6.47
Alex Young .243 .313 .405 .262 .327 .477 0.8 -0.4 3.93 6.00
Connor Curlis .275 .364 .461 .266 .344 .486 0.7 -0.4 5.17 6.46
Justin Bruihl .231 .299 .333 .277 .354 .477 0.5 -0.2 4.24 5.73
Levi Stoudt .265 .366 .456 .289 .358 .485 0.5 -0.4 5.31 6.44
Sam Moll .211 .294 .355 .252 .354 .455 0.6 -0.5 4.05 6.01
Lucas Sims .204 .362 .376 .214 .310 .384 0.9 -0.7 3.94 6.16
Derek Law .256 .350 .467 .269 .339 .435 0.4 -0.4 4.29 6.07
Evan Kravetz .239 .337 .408 .270 .355 .472 0.6 -0.5 4.68 6.41
Michael Mariot .304 .383 .545 .272 .333 .448 0.4 -0.4 5.27 6.77
Silvino Bracho .261 .340 .443 .255 .314 .464 0.4 -0.4 4.34 6.13
Michael Byrne .267 .343 .511 .259 .323 .393 0.4 -0.4 4.47 5.82
Thomas Farr .294 .376 .503 .270 .348 .455 0.5 -0.5 5.45 6.54
Chasen Shreve .254 .323 .441 .248 .313 .446 0.4 -0.4 4.12 6.38
Buck Farmer .248 .355 .429 .228 .303 .417 0.6 -0.7 3.98 6.32
Tony Santillan .272 .402 .446 .234 .331 .421 0.4 -0.6 4.74 6.45
Tommy Eveld .279 .347 .500 .250 .304 .431 0.3 -0.3 4.20 6.10
Spencer Stockton .261 .355 .467 .273 .336 .455 0.3 -0.5 4.88 6.55
Alec Mills .322 .392 .591 .266 .319 .435 0.3 -0.4 5.43 6.73
Brooks Kriske .246 .352 .475 .221 .316 .397 0.2 -0.5 4.45 6.58
Jake Wong .275 .356 .435 .286 .365 .536 0.2 -0.7 5.37 6.82
Tyler Jay .286 .375 .476 .273 .348 .505 0.1 -0.6 5.17 7.18
T.J. Sikkema .227 .344 .373 .273 .364 .471 0.1 -0.7 5.29 6.71
Myles Gayman .288 .341 .492 .271 .326 .442 0.1 -0.7 4.82 6.17
Donovan Benoit .250 .391 .446 .242 .346 .424 0.0 -0.6 5.07 6.68
Eddy Demurias .260 .367 .455 .272 .358 .457 0.0 -0.7 5.14 6.60
Zack Brown .291 .396 .512 .283 .368 .478 0.0 -0.8 5.77 7.44
Hunter Strickland .288 .390 .530 .242 .333 .440 0.0 -0.7 4.94 7.06
Brooks Crawford .271 .351 .449 .272 .338 .478 0.0 -0.8 4.95 6.33
Alan Busenitz .268 .345 .464 .284 .351 .490 0.0 -0.8 4.98 6.58
Ryan Meisinger .262 .384 .508 .260 .348 .455 -0.1 -0.8 5.18 7.27
Shea Spitzbarth .261 .370 .478 .278 .384 .458 -0.1 -0.7 5.24 7.08
Daniel Duarte .255 .360 .462 .259 .352 .454 0.0 -0.9 5.07 6.93
Andy Fisher .233 .352 .433 .279 .387 .471 -0.2 -0.9 5.42 7.00
Stevie Branche .211 .356 .408 .265 .398 .470 -0.1 -0.9 5.25 7.15
Jared Solomon .278 .393 .495 .275 .385 .471 -0.1 -0.8 5.81 7.42
Ryan Nutof .271 .378 .495 .265 .349 .416 -0.1 -1.0 5.17 6.84
Tayron Guerrero .317 .451 .634 .265 .373 .449 -0.3 -0.8 6.39 8.82
Vin Timpanelli .262 .410 .488 .232 .358 .394 -0.3 -1.1 5.62 7.42
Jake Gozzo .294 .425 .529 .253 .370 .424 -0.6 -1.4 6.29 8.05

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.



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